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If they cut the price to $250 and have a game bundled, which I suspect could happen as early as this fall ... is the price issue even that big of a deal?

It's a mere $50 more than the 3DS XL, which is the model that has the overwhelming majority of 3DS sales especially early in the life cycle.

Most 3DS buyers are willing to pay $200 for that ... Switch is way better hardware, TV output, way better screen resoution, detachable controllers, more built-in storage, and the entire Nintendo future catalog on one device (there's no Splatoon 3DS or Zelda: BotW for 3DS) and you're get a free game?