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3DS might be tough, but Switch will have something the 3DS did not -- Splatoon, and I think Splatoon is really the next big software monster in Japan. 

But having to compete with an established weight of the smartphone/tablet market from day 1 makes the Switches climb a more uphill one than the 3DS did.

Nintendo needs 15-20 million from Japan. 15 mill would be OK, 20 mill would be great.