The two best predictions on the market I have ever seen came from two sources:
Source one was the old magazine Next Generation (in the USA). In June of 1996 (right at the N64 Japanese launch), they predicted that despite the innovations to follow from Super Mario 64, PS1 would win the generation because it offered a better business model to consumers and developers. They predicted that regardless of how great Super Mario 64 turned out, Japan would fall to Sony, and the rest of the world would follow.
Sony took Japan, then the world even as Mario 64 ended up among the top selling games of the generation.
I still have the magazine in my room..
Another take was in EGM on the Xbox vs. Gamecube. EGM said that Xbox had a better launch lineup. Fresh off Sega leaving the hardware market, EGM wondered if Gamecube would be Nintendo's last console would be Gamecube if it floundered in the face of deeper pocketed competition.
Although it was close, it looks like Xbox will end up beating GC by ~ 2 million units.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
