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If Nintendo can get it down to $250 by the holiday and throw a game in as a bundle, they could be OK. They need Pokemon Stars or Animal Crossing this holiday, Mario is not enough.

They may have some headaches over the summer too, $300 is a high price in those slower summer months, even with Splatoon 2 around, that will help them a lot in Japan, but US/Euro might not go for it, Splatoon 2 did not boost Wii U hardware sales appreciably in the US/Euro markets even if it sold a nice amount to existing Wii U owners.