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The 3DS is up a bit YoY, but I feel this "boost" is a bit overstated. It's not like it's magically now selling double what it was before Pokemon Go.

It's a decent 20% bump for a few months and not every mobile app is going to be like Pokemon GO, Mario Run isn't finding the same level of success.

There are always alternatives too, saying there's no alternative so Nintendo can charge what they want ... well people can choose not to buy the system or choose a cheaper 3DS or just keep using their phones/tablets for whatever free time they have on the road. At home many people have a PS4/XB.

Many people were given the option of a $250 3DS and they chose simply not to buy the device period.

I hope Switch does well but none of those points in the OP really dissuade some of the issues the system could face.

The pre-orders/first wave of systems will sell out for sure because there's an easy 2-3 million really hardcore Nintendo fans who also know Nintendo underships a lot, so those first batch of systems will go quick, but after that I dunno.

Also I would say as cool as Mario Kart, Splatoon, and a new 3D Mario are ... the Wii U had all three of these too, and they only got the system to 15 million. DS/Wii were driven in sales by new IP like Wii Sports and Brain Training, there was nothing like that before, is 1,2 Switch going to drive hardware sales like Wii Sports did? I have my doubts. 

They need to get the price down to appeal to the 3DS audience, $360 with a game is too expensive I don't think they can hold out long at that price for long, not even with the MK8 port and Splatoon 2. IMO pushing the system like a home console and trying to price this as a premium product is a mistake.