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Certainly the initial launch Switchs will sell out.  Pass that, the Switch will struggle, but not for long.  Switch is so designed that people who do not care for it, and I'm speaking both casual and core gamers, will eventually come to light the advantages of a Switch.  Unlike the Wii U where it is a stationary, home based console, the Switch screams at you and you will pay attention to it because it's just so interesting.  Where Wii U is not understood for what it offers, with Switch you know exactly what it is.  You'll pay attention when someone brings it to a birthday party and there are kids and gamers of all ages around it, curious as to what this thing is. 

When there is genuine enjoyment around this system and random people are curious enough to ask what it is, that's already the start.  And if they only see one, it is sure that they will see it again somewhere else.  Even if there's not too many people who have bought this system, there will be because of the free advertisement by those who bought it.  It's like those stupid kendamas in 2015/2016 where you just couldn't go out and not see them.  In parks, in restaurants, in parties, in whatever, you will see the Switch and you may just buy them. 

Yes, $300 price tag is heavy, but that doesn't matter you'll buy it.  Yes, the online paid service is a downer, but that's for all the real gamers(You should all be happy to be considered a big boy player now because you know...EL33T).  Imagine all the Nintendo games where Online can really carry it to higher heights.  There is always local multiplayer.  Battery life, there are work arounds, I invested in mobile solar chargers, it's fine.   And yes, I agree that there is a huge entry level, but it never stopped Sony or Microsoft from succeeding.  It won't be this year, but next year is when Switch is going to really pop.  Why?  Because you won't be able get away from it.  It'll be a walking talking meme and you can't escape.