Why I think Nintendo Switch is set for another Wii U disaster.

[Soundwave]

ICStats said:

zorg1000 said:

Thats taking what people say out of context.

Alot of the comments are, "without multiplats, Switch will sell as bad as Wii U".

The rebuttle to that is 3DS lacked multiplats so mulitplats are not 100% needed for a device to sell well.

But don't you think it's relevant when talking about success or disaster?

Say hypothetically Switch sells 60 million.  That would be a respectable success as a console business, but it would be a disaster as Nintendo's console + portable combined business.

60 million would be fine given the modern market. It's enough systems for Nintendo to make a large profit from and software would go up because they'd have all their big games on one system, the only time Nintendo has had 60+ million users for their "big" games was the NES or Wii. 

People need to stop adding together Nintendo's portable and console userbase as if its some distinct audience, it never has been. There's always been huge overlap, of the 14 million Wii U owners, wouldn't surprise me at all if only 4-5 million of them don't also own a 3DS. 

So that makes your "actual" Nintendo audience only about 65 million users, and given that the Switch has to compete in a much harsher climate where smartphones and tablets are everywhere and cheap from day 1, 60 million would be a good target for Nintendo to aim for, and even 60 million won't be easy. 

Only the top tier most successful game platforms ever surpass 60 million units sold.