Why I think Nintendo Switch is set for another Wii U disaster.

[Soundwave]

Fixing past mistakes is not a guarantee for future success. A system must compete in the time line it exists in not in a "well these are mistakes we shouldn't have made five years ago". Both GameCube (disc format! easy to program for!") and Sega Dreamcast "fixed" many mistakes of their predecessors, but both still failed, with GameCube selling far less than the N64 even. The way I see it there are still serious issues with the Switch concept long term.

1.) Tablets are far cheaper today than they were when the 3DS launched in 2011. And cheap tablets are more plentiful. Beyond that the Switch "concept" is something that could be fairly easily copied by tablet manufacturers. Wouldn't take much for Samsung or even Apple to start a line of "game console/tablet" hybrids with a HDMI out and snap on controllers standard in the box. Are people really going to be willing to carry around two devices just for portable entertainment? Even though the 3DS has clawed out a niche, it's a shrinking niche. 

2.) There isn't really a new way to play here, unlike the Wii and DS which had massive success with dramatically new interfaces, Switch is more or less just a traditional game machine, it is basically a portable Wii U. So I wouldn't expect a massive "new audience" coming here.

3.) The system is grossly underpowered relative to the other platforms that it's presumably going to co-exist with (from 2017-2022 presumably?). That means third party ports will be difficult, and even if developers do bother to, how many people are going to be willing to then pay the same $60 for a very inferior port? Keep in mind the Nintendo audience thumbed their nose at things like COD and Assassin's Creed and Need For Speed on Wii U because the frame rate was like a few frames off or the game was a couple of months late. The compromises to get games on Switch will be more vast than that.

4.) All Nintendo games on one platform are nice, but do they really impact software diversity *that* much? I would question some of this. Even if you gave the Wii U a Zelda and Metroid and Animal Crossing game earlier in its life cycle, I think the only real difference is it would've sold 20 million maybe instead of 14 million. Both numbers are still abject failures. Nintendo alone cannot make up for the loss of huge genre diversity that third parties bring to the table.

I do think the Switch will perform alright, probably around what the 3DS has done give or take, but there are reasons to be skeptical as well. I suspect it'll have a good launch at least though, how Nintendo is able to handle the system as May/June/July/August rolls around will be more interesting to see.