November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

[KBG29]

Turkish said:

KBG29 said:

That would be the end of consoles. PS5 in 2018 would not even be able to double the power of the Pro. It would be the smallest leap in console history. New consoles can't come until 2019 at the earliest. That is the soonest 7nm chips will be available in mas scale. Even at that though I don't think tech will be ready for a new gen PS or Xbox. It is better to brand new devices as enhanced versions of the curent platform until the time comes when a true generational leap can occur. 

The best thing Sony and Microsoft could do going forward is release one final PS4 and XBO revision with around 10 - 12TF GPU's, and 16GB of RAM in 2020 with 7nm. Then when 3nm chips arrive in 2023 or 2024 they can deliver consoles with ~25TF, 128GB of on HBM RAM, and large SSD's. This would offer a full generational leap, and truly be a next gen console.

Sigh so much wrong in this post.

1st of all. Even in the same 14nm node a PS5 in 3 years time will provide a generational leap, because GPUs themselves will evolve and make generational leaps. Vega 10 is 14nm like Polaris and rumored to already reach 12TFLOPZ next year. GTX600 and 900 series were both 28nm but the latter is so much more powerful.

2. If PS4 Pro with its 4.2TFLOPZ had its own exclusives, you would already start to see graphical leaps. It's 2.3x more powerful than a regular PS4, that is halfway between the PS3 and PS4.

3. 7nm is coming by 2019:

TSMC, Q1'16 briefing

"Let me give you first on N10 update. We have received N10 customer product tape-out in 1Q 2016. We are actively preparing for more customer product tape-outs in the following quarters. Most of our N10 [=10nm] users are for mobile products. We will put this technology in production in two of TSMC's 12-inch giga-fabs. Those tape-outs will drive a sizable demand starting from 2Q 2017 through 2018."

"We have expanded our N7 design ecosystem development to include both mobile and high-performance computing, to enable our customers to deliver their first-to-market products. Our N7 adoption is very strong, with customers ranging from mobile GPU, game console, FPGA, network processors and other consumer product applications. We have more than 20 customers in intensive design engagement with us and expect to have 15 customer tape-outs in 2017. The volume production of N7 will start from first half 2018."

"Our 7-nanometer technology development is well on track. Its 256-megabit SRAM yield improvement is ahead of our schedule. In addition, we believe our 7-nanometer PPA, that is power, performance and area density, with its schedule, is ahead of our competitors. This technology has been aggressively adopted, not only by mobile customers, but also by high-performance computing customers. They all have aggressive product tape-out plan in first half 2017, with volume production planned in early 2018."

 

As you see, it's expected 7nm high end GPUs will start arriving by mid 2018. That is 18 months before Sony will realistically launch the PS5 (holiday 2019).

What this means is that the PS5 will have the same technology of the $250-300 7nm card AMD is planning of at least mid 2018. PS5 is locked to be at minimum 10-12TFLOPZ. 5x faster than the PS4.

While that is enough juice for a next gen 4k experience, I'm hoping they choose something like 1600p-1800p and use as much power on the graphics as they can. They can release a PS5 Pro to render thoe extra 4-500p's later on.

Well, I usually agree with your posts, but this time I will have to be sceptical. I know the schedule for the newer fabrication process's, I check on them at least once a week, it is part of my terrible addiction to the internet. We are basically saying the same thing about 2019 being the earliest realistic time period for the next console. On my end that is based on everything going smoothly in the move to 7nm, however, the move to smaller fabs is almost never smooth, so that is why I feel 2020 may be when the next new console revisions may arrive.

As for generational leaps inside a fab process, I have to completely disagree. There is no way your going to convience me that the leap from the 7970GHz Edition to the R9 Fury X is a generational leap. Sorry, but 2X the performance, even with newer tricks is not a generational leap.  Even PS3 to PS4 was not a true generational leap due to one being a high end 90nm chip and the other being a mid to low end 28nm chip. PS3 to PS4 Pro is more of what we should expect from a generational leap between consoles, and if PS4 and XBO would have launched at $599.99, then we would have got that.

Finally, PS5 has to be a fully capable 4K system. The thought of it not running every game at native 4K/30fps makes my blood boil. Even if they called the next revision PS4 Pro+, I fullly expect native 4K/30fps as a minimum. Honestly, this is what it should be going forward;

PS4 = 900p - 1080p/30fps Min

PS4 Pro = 1440p - 1800p/30fps Min

PS4 Spec 3 = 4K/30fps Min

All of these consoles would run the same games, minor graphicl improvements from PS4 to PS4 spec 3 with the major improvement being the 4x increase in pixels.

PS5 Spec 1 = 4K/30fps Min

PS5 Spec 2 = 6K/30fps Min

PS5 Spec 3 = 8K/30fps Min

PS5 Spec 1 would realize a generational leap over PS4 at 4K, the jump from 12 TF to 25TF GPU, 16GB to 128GB RAM, and 5400rpm HDD to SSD would absolutly blow people away. That is what next gen is about, that is what Sony and MS should be aming for. Everything in between is just a nice option for those that want to be at the spear head of tech. PS4 to PS5 and XBO to XB4 should be something that blows everyone away, and is a must have for the masses.