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Soundwave on 29 November 2016
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superchunk said:
Soundwave said:

It can be a "home console" ... it's just a mediocre home console, Sony and MS control the home console market now.

Nintendo either needed a new break through fad controller or competetive hardware, which it doesn't look like they really have.

This will sell to the same 20 million hardcore Nintendo fans that are willing to buy a Nintendo console, but for "home console" usage everyone else is buying a Playstation or XBox.

The main audience here is the 3DS audience, by creating a hybrid device, Nintendo can at least get some of them (and most Wii U owners own a 3DS, so they are already in that crowd).

I think as someone else mentioned above Switch will still sell under the 3DS because the portable market is shrinking, but at least that's a still somewhat viable audience for Nintendo.

Except this will be replacing the portable line as well which has a 80MM fanbase.

Japan doesn't want home consoles, so this will kill off PS4 support there (assuming 3rd parties support, which the will).

3DS is selling well at $200.

NS is goign to smash at $250 considering it will get the home console games plus the portable games. Even for home consoles, this will be heavily individualized (like 3ds and other portables) so families will be more than one. (I plan on getting at least two at launch)

NS is potential 100MM seller given:

1) $250 starting price or less
2) 3rd party support (not 100%, but heavy on staples like FIFA/Madden/COD/etc)
3) 3DS is shelved in 2017 and 100% of portable software goes to NS

1.) 3DS has 60 milion sold not 80 million. The Wii U has an additional 14 million, but a heavy cross section of that also are 3DS owners, so it's probably really more like 65-67 million actual unique owners. Of that some people are going to be pissed off with the Wii U and are not coming back either, and they shouldn't be blamed for feeling that way, Wii U is Nintendo's Sega Saturn. 

2.) EA has only promised one game. One. That means FIFA or Madden. Not both. Maybe if that one game sells then we'll see more. COD has not been promised either. 

3.) IMO tablets and phones are going to continue to erode the portable market. We haven't seen the bottom yet, it's like a cancer that's gone unchecked for like 5 years, you can hope the damage is limited, but it may very well turn out to be uglier than anticipated. 3DS benefitted from coming out when the App Store and things like tablets were in their infacy and still got a couple of good years in before things went south. Switch has no such benefit, it is coming to a market where most kids already have daily access to a tablet or phone device which thousands of free games and other entertainment options on them to boot.

100 million only happens if Nintendo creates a new break-out blockbuster IP, like what Pokemon to Game Boy, Mario to NES, etc. (or Splatoon becomes a monster system seller of that caliber, driving sales to people who don't buy Nintendo hardware). 

I think 50-60 million is more realistic. There is still going to be a little more erosion from tablets, especailly as you get better and better tablets available in the $99 range. I think cheap physical controller add-ons for tablets are also going to become more and more common place in the next 5 years.