How Much Does the Switch Need to Sell to be Considered a Success?

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spemanig said:

Darwinianevolution said:
60 million is my guess. It doesn't need to be a Wii-like success, but it does need to at least match the 3DS sales, now that they have all their eggs in one basket. High attach ratios and better software output will bring enough money to make them happy.

They're going from having two platforms to one. It kind of does have to be a Wii-like success at the absolute least. This gen has the Wii U and 3DS selling a combined 74m so far, and that's been acknowledged by Nintendo as being a collossal failure for them.

Going from 74m on two plaforms to 60m on only one would be devastatingly bad for them. There's no point in consolidating their hardware if their audiences don't follow.

There aren't 74 million unique users to even begin with. 

We all know a good chunk of Wii U owners also own a 3DS because they're Nintendo fans. In fact, I'd say the portion of Wii U owners who don't have a 3DS is pretty freaking small, maybe 5 million.

That means you're really looking at 65 million or so and some of that 3DS number is even inflated because people buy multiple portables more readily than multiple consoles. 

I have no less than 4 3DS models (black launch model, Fire Emblem Awakening LE model, 3DS XL Zelda LE, New 3DS XL).