| HappySqurriel said: In the short term (next 6 months) I think it is fair to say that the Wii will continue to dominate the market and sell at (roughly) the same rate as the XBox 360 and PS3 combined; after GTA4 I don't think you can really argue that any game will motivate gamers to start buying either system at its current price to the extent that would be needed to change this. In the mid term (next 6 to 18 months) I think that the best case for the PS3 and XBox 360 is to hold 45% to 49% of market (combined) and for one of the systems to have only been outsold by 30 Million units by the Wii. After that it is possible to see the PS3 and XBox 360 attempt some sort of a comeback, but it would take many years to close the gap on the Wii; and if they were successful and started to catch up to the Wii, Nintendo could soon release a new inexpensive console which would erode the selling features of the PS3 and XBox 360. |
I agree on the overwhelming Wii power in the short term, in the long term it will be very difficult to the second to catch Wii before its production ends. Given Moore's law etc., Nintendo will be able to launch a Wii2 more powerful than PS3 at less than 250€ without losing a cent even at the beginning in 3 to 4 years, but more likely 6 if they want it to be, below that price theshold, much more powerful than PS3, and they'll try to refine Wiimote, the Board and Nunchuk too, eliminating whatever flaw or even only limit forced by present economic and technologic limits, for example they could eliminate the need for IR sensors, increase precision, devise a mode to move the player character around with the same ease and intuitiveness Wiimote moves its arm (this could be very easy if the Balance Board becomes included with Wii2, I think). Obviously Sony and MS won't let Nintendo catch them unprepared again, although it's obvious that adding wiimote clones to their current gen consoles won't have significant effect now, the only reason to do it this early is to gain experience on time with a view to next gen. By Wii2 release, anyway, PS3 and XBox360 prices will have to be below 150€, perhaps even under 100€, if Nintendo manages to lower launch price to 200€ (*), to keep on existing in the low end market and avoid being blown away.
(*) Although I think they'll keep the 250€ launch price, as it makes them earn more money and facts demonstrate without any doubt that's a price that doesn't scare away users.
