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Mummelmann on 22 July 2016
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Teeqoz said:
Mummelmann said:

Yeah, something needs to happen for 20 million to become reality, but quite a few users berated me for not supporting the idea of 20 million sales in 2016, even in 2015. Again, the notion put forward seems to be that the competition is moving so slowly that the PS4 is bound to have amazing sales.
That said, even without a 20 million selling year in its entire cycle (an idea I've actually suggested a long time ago), it should still sell a good amount lifetime. I also still believe it won't catch the PS1 and that the PS3 is a much more realistic target to beat lifetime, especially given the PS3's long life, which the PS4 won't have, by all appearances, the 7th gen was very long and we likely won't see one as long as that again.

When do you expect the PS5 to launch? People like to talk about the PS3's long life, but it was only half a year longer than the PS2's life (1 year longer if you use NA launch as the basis.)

 

If you expect the PS5 to launch in 2018, you are predicting that the PS4 will have the shortest lifespan of any PS console to date. This just seems improbable to me, with the Neo essentially extending the length of this gen by two years if Sony wants to.

Perhaps holidays 2019, the PS2 was in a unique position, it had 75% marketshare, Sony were the entire (relevant) market in essence. With the PS3 and 360, the gen dragged on more due to rising development costs and the incentive to stay on longer to make up for costly R&D as well backing new formats (the format wars raged for the first two years of the PS3's life). It was a fairly major shift in video game development, with digital and even streaming becoming more and more of a thing, consoles will likely become less static products and they need to emulate, to some extent, the market driving forces in consumer electronics in general, doubly so since they have more non-gaming features than ever.

I think the PS4 will live a shorter life than both PS2 and PS3, easily, and the decline will be a lot faster as well, simply due to the less static nature of the market compared to 10-15 years back.