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Compared to what they would have been without cross buy.

XBO Hardware sales/profits will decrease due to PC owners having less reasons to buy.
XBO First party profits will decrease due to PC+XBOX owners opting to buy on W10.
XBO 3rd party profits will decrease due to players shifting more to PC and buying on Steam.
Gold subscriber profits will decrease due to not needing Gold on PC.

W10 First party profits will increase due to PC+XBOX owners preferring games on PC and non XBOX owners buying on PC.
W10 3rd party profits will increase due to increased exposure to the W10 app store.
Online player bases for games may increase, which might increase first party sales on XBO and W10 as the games have longer legs.



From that it's just a question of which pros and cons have the strongest impact.