| theprof00 said:
BUT....This number would factor in for deaths AND for population changes, even if conservatively. Still only 5% in total (18.8-21.4 <2.5%) to the number I found with about 4000 words less. Was the 4000 words worth a 2.4% difference given that the baseline being used was 20%? I'm not sure it was. I basically spent several hours finding a 1.2% change Conservative difference. Oh, I almost forgot that I was also using an incidence number from the lowest incidence numbers in time. Dude, I really think it's safely over 20%. Regardless of death or population or anything. In the future that will change. But I think it's very safe to say of all people currently alive, 20% is a workable number. But anyway, regarding the second point, the methodological sheet mentioned the statements I made, which was published in 2006, so perhaps the questionairre has changed since then. I believe I copied and pasted the text in my big calculations post. But just in case, I'll repost it tomorrow, just to show good faith that I didn't make it up. |
Let me just fudge around with the numbers for a second:
Cycle 1: 1995-2010
Alive today (data from US census): 29.398million + 113.837 = 143.235
Percent Victims: 4.7%
Number of Living Victims: 6.73million
Cycle 2: 1980-1995
Alive today: 28.686million + 85.151 = 113.837
Percent Victims: 5.69%
Number of Living Victims: 6.477million
Cycle 3: 1965-1980
Alive today: 32.887million + 52.264 = 85.151
Percent Victims: 6.6%
Number of Living Victims: 5.62million
Cycle 4: 1950-1965
Alive today: 26.139million + 26.125 = 52.264
Percent Victims: 8%
Number of Living Victims: 4.18million
Cycle 5: 1935-1950
Alive today: 15.755million + 10.37 = 26.125
Percent Victims: 10.29%
Number of Living Victims: 2.688million
Cycle 5.4: 1930-1935
Alive today: 4.37million (plus everyone older: 6million) = 10.37million
Percent Victims: 11.11%
Number of Living Victims: 1.152million
Total Number of Victims: 26.84
2010 Population: 143million
Victimization %: 18.769 (pretty damn close to your 18.8%. I must admit, I'm impressed by your formula)
Now factor in the 20% deduction from repeat victimization (within year): 15.02%
Now factor in the 18% of "rapes and sexual assaults" that were nothing more than verbal threats (this is me being nitpicky): 12.314%
And if you only want to look at rapes only: 4.506%
There are still issues with this data, but if looking for rates of what the BJS calls "Rape and Sexual Assault", saying 1 in 7 women alive in 2010 have been raped or sexually assaulted in their lifetime seems pretty accurate, about 1 in 8.5 if you subtract "threats" from that number and about 1 in 23 if you are only looking at Completed Rape.
