Can Nintendo catch Sony?

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SWA_JM_Obi-Wan said:

I do want to say this as i find this quite funny, yet interesting. when the PS3 and Wii launched. the PS2 had sold 120 million units, the GC about 25 mil and the XBOX 23 mil. That's roughly 170 million units ofr last gen. Yet I see people predicting 150 mil for the Wii, 80 Mil for the PS3 and 40-50 mil for the 360. thats like almost doubling last gen in growth. Folks if this gen sells 200-210 mil consoles, it would be considered an extremely healthy growth. I am just pointing this out to show where I think peoples thinking in regards to this ganeration in sales is a tad bit skewed.

Firstly, last generation is going to end close to 200M, so the growth to 210M would be natural, without the change that Wii is causing.
Secondly, looking at the historical numbers, every time the industry has changed, the leading consoles sales have equaled the sales of the whole previous generation (and a bit more), with it having around 70% marketshare, which would mean Wii selling around 200M and PS360 combined around 70M.

I believe you know just as well as i do, that Wii just have had a slow start because of the lack of games.
Besides, the PS2 didn't win because of it's AAA titles throughout its lifetime (since this isn't any different from GC), but because of the amount of shovelware AND AAA titles.