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Soundwave on 29 April 2016
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pokoko said:
Soundwave said:

The quote you provided doesn't even provide any firm data. I'm sure Sony would "like" to have some of the Wii audience, who wouldn't, but there's no firm data given there and it's a fairly wishy-washy statement. 

If Sony has any success gaining any notable portion of the Wii userbase, they should have little problem selling more than 150 or even 200 million given the audience they already had and while the PS4 is selling well it's not selling so far ahead of say the PS2 to suggest that.

What we're seeing is overall console sales for this gen are way down ... and that's largely because a big chunk of the Wii-only audience isn't there anymore.

Last gen we saw 105 million Wiis, 85 million for 360, 86-87 million for PS3 ... this gen is not going to be even close to that.

PS4 + Xbox One are far, far ahead of the PS3 + Xbox 360.  Like 20M ahead, or so.  You're telling me those are all new gamers?  That because everyone who owned a Wii--and their kids--were all hipsters, none of them has moved on to the PS4?

That doesn't even make sense.

But they're not ahead at all when you factor Wii into the equation and leave Wii U for this gen. Obviously a lot of those gamers have moved on.

If Wii owners were really sticking around in huge numbers then this generation shouldn't have much trouble selling 250+ million consoles, but it's no where close to being on track for that even with very good PS4 sales.

Obviously a lot of Wii owners did not return to console.

Apple/Google are taking those customers, they are the stone wall Nintendo has run into, I'm sure Nintendo would love dearly to go back the days when Sony/MS were the only two they had to worry about.

This generation will probably end up around 180-190 million, though even that will probably be somewhat inflated by PS4 owners double dipping for a PS4.5. But that will be well short of last gen. It's easy enough to see if this hypothesis is true or not -- simply let the generation play out. It will become evident sooner or later.