If they have Zelda for launch and possibly Smash Brothers too ... I think even if they could also have Mario at launch, they'll probably in that case hold off Mario.
Better to have to Mario in the dreaded post-launch drought period, you don't need to blow your wad on the launch.
I think Smash Brothers could be more than just a Wii U port too, IMO it would make more sense to release a Smash All-Stars/Collection type deal with Brawl and Melee also included with upgraded graphics. MS did it with Halo Collection and Sony did it with Uncharted Collection. That moves it from being a "port" to being something that likely is a bigger system mover.
Legend of Zelda - November 16
Smash Bros. Collection - December 16
Super Mario NX - March 2017
Makes more sense than having all three jammed together within 6 weeks of each other or something.
