Shadow1980 said:
To add to what Zhuge said, the software market does appear to have a cycle of sorts, just like the hardware market. Here's U.S. hardware sales in the same period as the software graph he provided (note that I had to use VGC numbers for the 360, PS3, Wii, and Vita for 2015 as nobody shared any NPD numbers for those platforms):
While quite similar, the hardware numbers aren't quite congruent with the software numbers. Hardware sales for a given system tend towards a roughly bell-shaped curve, most frequently peaking by the third full year (the PS3 & 360 were the exceptions, peaking in their 5th & 6th full years respectively in the U.S.). Meanwhile, software sales curves take a different track. Attach rates for systems typically increase over time, as not only do existing owners buy more and more games from an ever-expanding library, but also new owners of current-gen systems are introduced. However, software sales for a given system in a given year depends on the overall software support for a system, how many major titles are released in a given year, and how well those titles perform in terms of sales. If most of a system's biggest and most popular games are more front-loaded in a system's life, then software sales could peak earlier, but a strong slate of titles well into a system's later years could delay peak software sales. Also, just as how the timing of system releases can affect the overall trajectory of the hardware market as a whole, so too can it affect the trajectory of the software market. This is why software sales in the first half of the 00s peaked in 2004 despite hardware sales peaking in 2002. Also, handhelds tend to have much lower attach rates than home systems. For example, the GBA was beast in terms of hardware sales in the U.S., having overperformed here compared to Japan and Europe by a considerable margin, selling roughly on par with the PS2 at its peak, and by the end of 2005 it had already surpassed the PS1's lifetime sales. It sold almost as well in seven years as the Game Boy did in 12. Yet it had only half the attach rate its counterpart the GameCube did. Every major sixth and seventh gen console has had a considerably better attach rate than the GBA, DS, or PSP, and the PS4, XBO, and Wii U all have a higher attach rate than the 3DS. Also, handheld games cost less on average than consoles. So, handhelds have a generally smaller impact on total software unit sales and revenues than home consoles do. This may explain why seventh-gen software sales were not as big proportionally compared to sixth-gen software sales despite the DS being a titan and the PSP doing extraordinarily well and both helping drive hardware sales to an all-time high. It could also explain why, despite hardware sales declining by 46.5% from 2008 to 2012, software sales declined by only about 35% (if my pixel-counting is right). Sales of handhelds and the Wii declined substantially and both the Wii and DS did not get very strong support later in life, while PS3 & 360 sales continued increasing until 2011 and both systems were still getting strong software support. So, how does this apply to the current situation? Well, the collapse of the handheld market in the U.S. relative to where it was last decade has obviously hurt both hardware and software sales, but it may not have hurt the former as bad as it has hurt the latter. Additionally, the 360 & PS3 collapsed very quickly after passing their very belated peaks (said collapse was likely caused by that delayed peak; by time they peaked they had also got to a pretty good saturation point) and are rapidly losing support, whereas the PS1 and PS2 continued selling relatively and getting good support well past their peaks. Also, the PS4 and XBO, which are just over two years old, are only just now starting to receive their first big current-gen-only blockbusters in the form of games like Battlefront and Fallout 4. As Zhuge pointed out, software development shifting more fully towards current-gen systems will likely propel software sales back towards a rebound phase. Potential blockbusters for this year aside from COD include Uncharted 4, Final Fantasy XV, Gears 4, Mass Effect: Andromeda, the new Zelda game, and the new Battlefield game. As user bases, attach rates, and library sizes for the PS4 & XBO increase, so too should software sales. Also, if the NX proves to be a hit it could boost software sales as well. While the market will likely never go back to the all-time highs of the late 00s, the U.S. software market should still remain quite strong relatively speaking as console sales continue to do quite well. |
Interesting analysis, thanks for the read!
We need a "steamspy" for all the digital stores!
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