Microsoft So Happy It Didn't Make a Handheld Console

[Final-Fan]

HappySqurriel said:

Imperial said:
If the XBOX 360 wasn't arround then all development would have been geared towards the PS3 , The PS2 has a great track record and against 1 competitor ( the Wii) the developers would have been queing up for a guaranteed profit and a reliable platform. Without the 360 the PS3 would most definetley have had MORE sofware.

Your making the assumption that devleopers would see the PS3 in the same light they do now , Most development resources would have been allocated to the development of PS3 games (you keep on forgetting about the PS2's dominance in a market with only one competitor even the least talented of Analysts would have predicted the demise of the Wii, they would have made round about the same number of PS2 games however.)

January 1st 2005, Rockstar just finished production of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas the PS3 is rumored to be released in late in 2006 but there are no solid details; do you begin development of Grand Theft Auto 4 for the PS3 under the assumption that Sony launches it in 2006 and its userbase is a decent size late in 2007, or do you begin work on Grand Theft Auto: Big Easy for the PS2 knowing that its userbase will still be huge?

It is not about "how developers see the PS3" ... the simple fact is there is almost no chance that any developer would have began PS3 projects when they began XBox 360 projects, they would have (most likely) started PS2 projects in their place, and the PS3 would have had a much worse first year library. Why is this so hard to understand?

I'm afraid I have to tentatively call bullshit on this (until you back up with evidence), which is a shame as the person you're rebutting has plenty of weak points* IMO. 

To begin with, weren't the rumors for SPRING 2006 release of the PS3?  That didn't happen but as I recall it was what we thought would happen.  And the assumption was also that the PS3 would rule the next gen (this one) much as the PS2 did, so it probably wouldn't take until "late" 2007 to get a decent userbase (unless I mistake what you reckon "reasonable").  Which also didn't happen but was widely assumed to be foreordained. 

Next, in point of fact Rockstar did always plan to have the game out on the PS3 with a good userbase. 

As for the argument that the PS3's first year benefited greatly from having ports from the 360's first year, well, that may be true but doesn't it kind of undermine your argument that nobody wants to develop for an HD system in its first year?  The biggest effect would probably be that the PS2 would have had one more year in the sun -- and yes, that would have helped the Wii to some extent, considering the amount of PS2 ports it's gotten, but it would also have helped Sony. 

Just because some of those projects would have gone to the PS2 doesn't mean that a vacuum would exist on the PS3.  All those people making games for the 360 in its second year?  Yeah.  A lot of them would have been doing it on the PS3, the heir apparent to the PS2, and when E3 2006 told us different it would be too late for them to switch to the Wii. 

Now, for some stuff outside the quoted post: 

A big factor I think gebx overlooks is the effect that the 360's year-long head start had on the 2v1 "HD vs. Wii" battle.  If the PS3 and Wii were to launch side by side in that other scenario as they did in actuality, that extra userbase would not exist.

Also, gebx's war analogy makes a fundamental error:  The countries in the analogy are preexisting.  The consoles, conversely, build up over time.  The analogy assumes that every resource of the 360 -- exclusive developers, userbase, all of it -- would be arrayed with the PS3 against the Wii.  In reality, of course, the Wii would gobble up quite a bit of that. 

Overall, I think that the effects gebx is looking at and those that HappySquirrel is looking at would more or less cancel out, but with th edge going to the Wii.  (How on earth do you figure that 20-25% of PS3 buyers would NOT have bought it if the 360 didn't exist??)

*(must ... resist ... joke ...)