After thinking about it, yeah, each version has as much content as Awakening, or at least Birthright and Conquest separated, so the thread title isn't very accurate.
However, if you were to unify both versions to see all story points, you would see that their content don't double the things originally offered in Awakening, because, as you say, they have a lot of sutff in common.
As such, your point stands, because Fire Emblem Fates, as an individual game, it's a little less than 40% overpriced. In fact, 64 dollars is what the whole package should cost if the three games were coming in one.
My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first.
