They can't win by launching within the Xbox 1 and especially PS4's lifetime. By the time the "NX" comes out there wll be well over 50 million PS4's around the world and something like 25 million Xbox 1s, so essentially Nintendo would be going up against a combined userbase of close to 80 million and growing. Even if they do manage to get COD/Assassin's Creed/Destiny/FIFA/Battlefield etc, the userbase/online community will be tiny compared to PS4/X1. In contrast, the later they launch, the closer the PS5/Xbox 2 launches will be. Dreamcast suffered from this with the PS2's looming launch causing doubt in potential buyers. Catch 22.
Unless they happen to hit it big with some gimmick, they aren't going to get big sales in my honest opinion. Dropping support for the Wii U will burn alot of their existing fans also. It's looking bleak.
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