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MGS4 launch date is right next to the start of summer and game sales overall will be up (although PS3 sales last year were actually going down in June).

My speculations for the first week:

Software:

NA : 1.2 million (including the bundle units)
OT : 800-900K (including the bundle units)
JP: 300-400K (including the bundle units)

Sofware Total: 2.2 million


Hardware:

NA: 275K-325K
OT: 300K-375K
JP: 75K-95K

Hardware Total : 650K


Sales momentum has been building up with the release of GT5P last month and GTA4 last week, add to that the return of the American-favorite 80gb SKU, the beginning of the summer (some fathers may be getting themselves a nice gift that week in USA), and expect many 360 owners finally buying a PS3 with good reason. It's 75% guess, but it's my guess. So yeah, here's to hoping...