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Depends on the size and composition of the userbase. Even a small userbase is enough, if there are enough users interested in the game. On the other hand, a large userbase is almost useless if not enough users are interested in the game. You need enough of right users or the ability to convert 'wrong' users into 'right' ones.

tl;dr: It's the amount of interested users that matters, not the amount of all users.