Will Splatoon surpass the sales of Super Mario 3D World and Smash Bros U?

[StarDoor]

What's with all the people saying it'll easily pass 3D World, but not Smash?

Nintendo's official shipment numbers as of September 30, 2015:
SM3DW: 4.47 million
SSB4: 4.03 million

During that quarter, 3D World sold 170,000 and Smash sold 200,000. Not only is 3D World ahead of Smash, but they're almost selling at the same rate. It's pretty premature to say that Smash is the stretch goal here.