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If NX sells at least 30 million, yes, it will sell > 10 million.
If we will see some like 50 million, more like 12-15 million.

Last, this is most likely not gonna happen, but if NX sells at Wii levels ( 100,000,000 ) Splatoon should sells  25-30 million.
( Almost Mario Kart 6 level )