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I think alot of this depends on weather SONY can give PS3 a new-begining in japan.

SONY really needs to boost console sales their -- weather its a PS3 slim, a price cut or a game the need it ASAP ...
In the end im guessing mid-09 SONY will pass 360 in LTD sales ... but any math done will be flawed as their are far to many week - to - week factors to consider ( will game x have and affect, will game y be delayed , with their be a price drop, if so how big a price drop ? )