NX power

[potato_hamster]

zorg1000 said:

potato_hamster 

Skylanders probably isn't the best example to use. The game is basically shovelware, made as cheaply as possible, with little to no depth, with the main purpose being to sell little statues. That game makes money by being as cheap as possible to make while having a huge mark up on the cost of figures. Supporting all those platforms is extremely expensive for activision, but it really doesn't matter if they sell enough of those high-margin figures to justify it. But again, that is Skylanders. That is the the most widely available game ever made to sell more plastic figures. You take away those figures and the Skylanders game doesn't gFor example, a better example might be  is no sounds expensive, doesn't it? It was - one of the most expensive video games ever made. That game cost Konami $80 million just to develop, and was so expensive they broke part of the game off as a separate retail title called "Ground Zeroes". To get the "full game", gamers were spending $100 retail for it. They did this because they can, because it's Metal Gear Solid, because it's an established brand, because they had a good idea on how much it would sell.  Even with all that, rumors are swirling that the game was unfinished, and rushed out the door, that Kojima quit/was fired over how much that game was costing. Would Kojima have opted to just have the game on PS4/X1/PC and focus the budget otherwise spent on supporting other platforms on making the game better? Undoubtedly. Remember MGS4 came out for one platform, and one platform only, and it cost far less to develop.

As for the NX, why do I think third parties won't support it? There are a number of reasons:

Because it will be more expensive to support it than any other platform on the market, and that's obvious. No one should be arguing agsint the fact that supporting multiple specifications in a single platform has to be more expensive than supporting a single specification on a single platform. It's added complexity. It will require specification-specific changes. It will require specification-specific testing. There are no two ways around it. The NX will cost more to develop for than developing a single game for PS4 or a single game on Xbox One.

Because there is little to no reason to expect third party games to sell well on a Nintendo platform. They simply don't sell well, and never have. There are rare exceptions, but take the Wii as an example- an install base of over 100 million wiis world-wide. The five highest selling third party Wii games combined solid about as well as Super Smash Brothers, which was the 8th best selling Wii game. That is not good. The Wii U and Gamecube have even worse third party numbers. What makes anyone think any third party game will sell well on the NX?

So you're the head of a video game studio, and you plan on making a multi-platform game. Your market analysis and experience tell you if you develop a game for the PS4 and X1 it will cost you $3 million total, and you can expect to get 1.5 million in sales between the platform. Now you're deciding whether you want to add NX to the mix. You crunch the numbers and you figure it's going to cost you an additional $1.5 m to develop it for the NX, considering the arcitecture isn't X86, you'll have to do significant work to re-work the engine to support that platform, you'll have to redo all of the art and audio assets to not only be optimized for the NX's hardware, you'll have to do all of that extra work to support the extra specification, etc, but the gameplay mechanics, story, ui and animation can all be carried over with little re-work. So now your budget just blew up by over 30%. At the very least you should expect another 30% in sales to make it worthwhile. So, do you think your game, which will sell 850k on PS4, and 650k on X1 is going to sell 500k on NX? probably not. History certainly hasn't shown as much. In the meanwhile you've got half the money you need for the sequel on PS4 and X1, which will more than likely generate more money than it would if it was invested in porting a multi-platform game over to NX. So again, why would I bother?

As for my last paragraph, If that's what you want, I wish Nintendo the best of luck going up the likes of Apple and Google. If you think Microsoft and Sony were stiff competition, you haven't seen anything yet.

MGSV probably isn't the best example either, that games budget isn't due to the amount of platforms but because it has one of the largest open-worlds ever in a game, one of the most visually impressive games ever, features things like motion capture and big name celebrities as voice actors.

I'm not sure where u r getting ur info from, according to this site over 150 Wii titles sold over 1 million, over 2/3 of those were 3rd party.

But anyway, u keep bringing up PS4/XB1 when I repeatedly say the objective is not to get the games on those consoles to come to NX, it's to unify the software library that Nintendo handhelds receive with the software library that Nintendo consoles recieve. I highly doubt anybody will need to significantly rework their engines or redo all artwork when these devices were designed with the sole purpose of being cross-compatible. Of  course it won't be exactly the same as making one game on one platform but for example Capcom releases Monster Hunter 5 for NX Portable and they estimate it will cost an additional 10% to bring the game to NX Console than that's something that could very well be worthwhile for them.

Nintendo doesn't need to beat Apple/Google, they simply need to create a large enough ecosystem for their IP to sell on and be profitable. 3DS+Wii U will sell about 80 million when all is said and done, that's while being the most expensive generation ever to get the full Nintendo experience, along with both devices suffering software droughts at points and having lackluster marketing that led to consumer confusion.

So again, with a unified ecosystem & membership/rewards program that makes cost of entry significantly lower, a much more consistent software release schedule, and stronger brand recognition due to various types of IP licensing (mobile apps, theme park attractions, films/series, merchandising), it's not at all unrealistic for Nintendo to increase their consumer base compared to 3DS/Wii U.

Actually of those 157 million + sellers, over 40 of them are Nintendo games. That leaves about 120 million+ sellers in over 2500 third party games tracked for the Wii. Your numbers suggest that approximately every 1 in 20 third party games sold over 1 million.  Meanwhile, taking the PS3 as an example, there were about 200 million+ sellers in about 2600 third party tracked games.. That's about  1 in 13, meaning publishers had a 35% better chance at selling 1 million+ game on a console that sold 20% less world-wide. Those aren't good numbers for Nintendo.

On top of that, the reason I keep being up PS4 and X1 is because third parties tend to exclusively make multi-platform games, because adding platforms to games is cheaper than making an entirely new game per platform. I mean this is obvious, right? If you think it's a hard sell to convince developers to port their PS4/X1 game over to the NX it will be an even harder sell to convince them to make an NX standalone title. Sure it'll be cheaper for a developer to make an NX game than it would be to make a Wii U/3DS game, that is obvious. However how many third party developers are actually just making a game for Wii U or just making a game for 3DS? Not too many. 

You're right. Nintendo doesn't need to beat Apple and Google. They could carve up their own piece of the pie. But unlike Sony and MS, Apple and Google can afford to, and have demonstrated an ability to intentionally lose millions of dollars on a product/service just to drive a competitior out of the market. Anything that Nintendo does, Apple and Google can undercut them on price. Sony can't afford to do that. MS won't afford to that. Apple on the otherhand? If they want the Nintendo equivalent of the iPod touch to fail, it will fail.

At the end of the day, you still fail to understand - this unfied console only works for two groups - Nintendo and its dwindling fan base. So they're going to create a Nintendo discount club? Fantastic. So Nintendo gets less money out of the people that were going to buy all of their stuff anyways. Tell me why the NX is going to convince someone like me (who has owned every major Nintendo console outside of the Virtual Boy, Wii U and 3DS, and has given up on Nintendo) to buy it? Or, 2why is a 40 year old mother of a 10 year old going to choose not to buy thier kid an iPod touch with thousands of free games, and thousands more for less than $5, but a Nintendo NX with $40 games, and probably some type of cartridge system instead? Because their kid can now pop that cartridge in an entirely separate console on the TV? That sounds pretty similar to the apple TV, and I bet the apple tv will be cheaper than the NX home.

Nintendo is making this console that will appeal exclusively to Nintendo fans, and compel Nintendo fans to spend more money on Nintendo products. That's it. Unfortunately Nintendo fans are a dying breed.