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Soundwave on 22 September 2015
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bigtakilla said:
Soundwave said:

No. Zelda is not going to change the fact that Wii U is going to finish at a mediocre 15-17 million units and be the worst selling Nintendo console.

The only thing changing that is a new Wii U controller that gives people orgasms. Price cuts, Zelda, no. I know the denial of how bad a failure the Wii U is really runs deep among some people, but it's time to accept that that system is not bouncing back. It's over. Done. Finished. 

People will see NX announced/shown and that will cause whatever remaining Wii U sales (and 3DS if it's a unified platform) to crater. 

It isn't the fact of Wii U finding a second breath, it's giving Nintendo enough time to release a decent next system that doesn't put them in the same situation as the Wii U.

Then you talk about having a new innovation/gimmick/whatever people want to call it. If the system is going to solely depend on what the new way to play games is instead of on games itself to push consoles, then it could very well release 2020 for all it matters. 

I doubt they are interested in making a PS5 level hardware. 

So if they launch in 2017, it basically will be the exact same situation as the Wii U. Third parties will ignore it/treat it like the third wheel and rightfully so -- it will have 0 userbase versus two platforms that will be approaching 85-100 million combined userbase with proven demographics by then. 

And by 2018, you'll have Microsoft likely touting their XB1 successor. So there goes your advantage of being "new". It's the Wii U, and really heavy shades of the Dreamcast all over again. 

It's just a bad situation all around, Nintendo has not put themselves in a good spot here. Luckily for them I think smartphone games will do very, very well for them, but traditional hardware they could very well be screwed here. 

A 2017 launch is pretty much a virtual gauruntee that they will be a distant third place for the remaining 1-2 years of that generation cycle and then they'll be badly outdated by new machines from MS/Sony that will have 4K resolution graphics. 

But even that is really not that important. Consoles are not the first priority for Nintendo, because they've gotten by OK with poor selling consoles before. If they don't stop the erosion of the traditional handheld market, then it's basically over for them as a hardware maker, that has to be priority no.1. The NX should be the 3DS successor at its core IMO, and then build other SKUs around that which play the same software.