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TheBigFatJ on 22 June 2007
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robjoh said:
TheBigFatJ said:
AsylumX said:
I think Nintendo is stocking a huge amount of Wiis for 3 really crucial dates in the US... i think during Metroid Prime 3 launch... there will be an huge shipment of wiis... say 1 - 2 million that month on US only... then with SSBB it will be even bigger... between 2 - 3 million that month which i predict would be between mid oct. and the first week of nov. and then December 1st the release of SMG and the beginning of the xmas shooping nightmare... where they will ship like 3 - 4 million consoles... or even more... remenber that Nintendo's goal is to surpass Xbox360 anytime soon... and i think they will do it between October and December this year...

Where would they be getting all of these Wiis? Nintendo is selling > 1 million per month right now. Even if they've ramped up production to 1.5 million starting in June, there's no way they'll have so many millions available for several dates by the end of the year.

I don't think Nintendo's goal is to surpass the 360. I'd hope their goals are a bit more lofty and they basically stated that they anticipate getting a larger US installed base than the PS2. At the current rate, they're virtually guaranteed to surpass the 360 in terms of installed base by October.


1.5 - 1 = 0.5 per month * 4 months untill november = 2 million units + the 1.5 units the produce per month. Well it is hard to say if they could reach 3 million in USA alone, but WW shouldn't a 5 million be a problem during november and december.

Some countries like spain and Sweden is also building up some stock so those countries might not get any christams deliveries. Then we also have the possibility that they actualy succeds in producing 2 million units in november and december, personally I don't think so but who knows.


(1) You're ignoring his statement about stockpiling for the metroid prime 3 launch and releasing then -- in August.

(2) The 1.5 million per month number is a production estimate. You can't put them all in the US for one month when *everyone* is having Wii shortages. Even if they could stockpile 2 million by November, which I strongly doubt, they'd be diverting too many units to the US to get more than 500K units her per month from the production lines.

Believing they'll sell many more than 2 million in the US between November and December combined is outrageously optimistic. Frankly, we don't even know if the 1.5 million units per month estimate is real or not -- some analyst estimated that. It could be 1.1 million per month, for all we know (although it seems to be over a million right now).

Nintendo isn't going to pull a couple of million units out of their white cheek. There will be shortages during the holiday season this year.