z64dan said:
http://www.amazon.com/LG-BH100-High-Definition-Blu-ray-Player/dp/B000NNK9LY/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-1994450-0223805?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1182404304&sr=8-1 Thats just the first generation. Blu-ray players cost $1200 a year ago also, so I think the price of these hybrid players should halve by this time next year. HD players are nice and all, but the market is pretty small for them (people who have 1080p TVs are the only ones who can get the most out of it). From VHS to DVD the difference was greater: No tape to mess up or find tracking on. Didnt have to rewind them. Could skip to a chapter. Had an awesome menu, which VHS didn't have. From DVD to HD-movies, the difference is there, but its not as much of a leap. Just higher res, thats it. I'm not saying these players won't catch on, but it will take a few years before HD movie sales beat out DVD movie sales. |
I just want to address the highlighted portion for a second. I looked up some info the other day due to gballzack making up the 10% number ofr hdtv adoption.
She was pretty close, actually...for 2005... http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6282439.html says it was about 12% at the end up 2005. HD format players weren't even available until Spring 2006.
http://www.audaud.com/article.php?ArticleID=1286 says March 2006: 15%.
http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P1595 says by 2008: 40%.
http://news.ecoustics.com/bbs/messages/10381/364162.html says 78% of consumers want HDTV.
I can't seem to find numbers for 2006 and 2007 other than 15% of people having both HDTV and HD cable I believe.
Anyway, it should become more clear by this fall when Nielsen will begin tracking hdtv penetration: http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/nielsen-to-beging-tracking-hdtv-penetration/
I also want to point out that to get the most out of standard dvds you still need an hdtv with upconverting somehow, but that didn't stop dvd from becoming popular. 720p/1080i is still an improvement. As for myself, I'm waiting for an affordable 1080p TV, but I'm not the average consumer. That Hitachi survey reveals that most people are confused about hdtvs even though 78% want one.
I think it would accelerate even faster if blu-ray just won out now. There's some momentum there with blockbuster, starz, and BD+ being completed. That should free up Fox/MGM and Disney that were waiting on the piracy protection that probably won't last very long either. I do hope it convinces a studio or 2 that blu-ray is safer for them to release movies on, but we'll see.
I don't disagree with much else you said, btw. It took DVD many years (2001 I believe I quoted the other day) to outsell VHS in a single year. I didn't quote you because of the dual-player, but I might as well comment on that: I hope it doesn't catch up in price because I want the superior format to win, but you are right that it might end up the standard since hd-dvd is hanging on for now.
