Is this a fair prediction?

[Sqrl]

blykmik said:

But it took the PS2 5 years, 9 months to hit 100 million. And that is a crazy feat... If you look at the chart I linked above, the Wii is trending stronger than the PS2 and the PS3 is tracking pretty much identically (the 360 is tracking short).

Your prediction isn't one I agree with but its a prediction so I don't see a lot of point in arguing about it since you've explained your reasoning.

However I've debunked this idea that the PS3 & Wii VS PS2 aligned launch graphs are directly indicative of future performance several times before. I'm going to copy and paste to save time:

 

Sqrl said:

WARNING: Critical thinking and the ability to read graphs required!

FACT: PS2 didn't start selling well until around week 40. Proof (this is due to a staggered launch FYI)

FACT: PS3 started to lag behind the aligned launches at around week 40. Proof

FACT: PS3 cought back up due to hitting the holidays which started to kick in around week 50 until around week 60. Proof

FACT: PS2 will pull away from the PS3 in 12 weeks when it hits it's holidays. Which is at week ~88 through ~98 in the aligned comparison you're using. Proof

FACT: PS2 was only on sale in Japan for the first 34 Weeks which is what caused this discrepency. Proof

Again if you don't account for offset launches things can be missleading, one console can surge while another idles. All you are seeing is a holiday sales spike lifting the PS3 up to the level of the PS2 temporarily, the only reason it did catch up is because as I said the PS2 didn't have a stellar first year. Take a look at this graph to see what I mean about the PS2's slow start. If you're going to use the PS2 as a barometer you need to understand the structure of its life. A console being on par with the PS2's early life is not unprecedented by any means. The GC, 360, Xbox, and PS3 all kept up for the first 40 weeks before falling behind.

By your logic the fact that at week 45 the Wii was more than double the PS2 in the aligned launches means that the Wii is destined to sell at least double the PS2. The Wii even managed to hold that pace all the way out to week 69 (the most recent week). But as this graph shows, the Wii isn't likely to maintain that ratio.

You know what...if you still don't believe me then I invite you to create a thread about it. I'm tired of explaining things to people too dedicated to the result they want to see anything else. I'll let everyone else explain why you're wrong since you don't want to believe me.

 

Note that this thread had gone on for a bit and I was a little frustrated with the person at the time =P In conclusion be careful when using this example that you know what you're talking about and you're using it properly...or someone who does know what they're talking about will probably make you look ridiculous.