Is this a fair prediction?

[blykmik]

Viper1 said:
The chart you linked to has been repeated many times and refuted just as many. The problem with the chart is the staggered launches of the PS2 and PS3. You cannot compare them across all territories this way. Instead you have to look at each territory individually. I'll show you.

Japan:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=PS3&reg3=Japan&weeks=400


America:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS2&reg2=America&cons3=PS3&reg3=America&weeks=400

Total other:
http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS2&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=PS3&reg3=Total+Other&weeks=400

As you can see, the PS3 is not tracking evenly with the PS2 at all. In fact, if you replace PS2 with GC in those charts, you'll see that Europe aside the PS3 has been tracking closer to GC than PS2. Obviously it won't stay that way but it shows you how it's begun vs PS2.

I do understand the issue with tracking them from a single point because of the stagger in PS2 release dates, but at the same time you are looking at the total progress to date (or endpoint of the line). But looking at territories it makes it appear that the Wii is tracking at PS2 rates (or even less at some poitns) whereas looking at the full data seems to reflect the reality of the Wii success a bit more.

So you have to take into account a lot of things when making predictions for 5 or 6 years after a console launch. If I were only to look at the charts you link here, I'd be inclined to think the Wii totals will be less than when looking at the chart I linked. Since I believe the mainstream excitement over the innovation of the Wii will settle at one point and the trend will show it, you'd be led to belive that Wii sales will flatten at a lower number.

Only in Japan is there really some discrepency on the charts that you show with the PS3 and PS2 tracking. That's the one that looks pretty bad for the PS3 compared to the PS2. The other two charts show the trends a bit more parallel. And remember... I'm not only predicting based on these VGchartz. I'm taking into account a lot of other factors (in reality "guesses") about what will happen in the future.

I have a basic assumption that there is no way that the PS3 could ever have sold (in pure numbers) the same as the PS2 at launch (aligned or not) because the PS3 came in to the market at such a high price. So the growth and adoption I expected to track simillarly, but not the raw numbers. We know that price is such a huge issue here and the Playstation brand is strong (with 120mill units out there).  Price drops always see spikes and the PS3 has a lot more price drops coming then the PS2... over time.

I would dispute your assertion that the PS3 (in America) for instance is tracking with the Gamecube also. Give that chart a few more weeks and I think that will be more than clear (i.e.time to incorporate GTAIV, GT5P and even MGS4).

 

I'm not sure how to do it, but I'd love to see an aligned chart of worldwide sales for Wii/PS3/360/PS2 in the period from Dec. 1, 2007 to Today. I think that little "zoom in" of these sales might be of interest.