So we're talking the 5 year mark for the PS3/Wii... and the 6 year mark for the 360? That's tough.
Ok.. so NOVEMBER 20th, 2011
I'll give it a shot:
Hmm...
First... expected retail price:
Wii - $129 (us)
360 - $99 (us) - cheapest sku
PS3 - $199 (us) - cheapest sku
Wii - 89 million
360 - 43 million
PS3 - 94 million
(By this time there will already have been an announcement of the Microsoft NeXtBox)
And honestly, I feel more secure about the PS3 and 360 prediction than the Wii... There's no way to tell how long that juggernaut will last. But we're talking 2011, and it is not HD capable... I have to think it has already made more impact than Nintendo could have ever hoped. All three of these companies probably have very different lifespan goals.
I think Nintendo and MS are not looking at the same 10 year lifespan that Sony has continually dedicated themselves to....
It will be interesting... I'll have to remember to come back to this thread in Nov. 2011 ... lol
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