Could Japan sales numbers decide what games Nintendo develop?

[Rustuv]

baloofarsan said:

 

This is an ongoing investigation: Does (NCL) Nintendo HQ use sales numbers from Japan only when they decide which games that are worthy of a sequel?

So far it seems as that  (with a few curious exceptions) a console game for a Nintendo home console have to sell close to 1 million copies - IN JAPAN - to get a sequel. Games with Mario in the title can sell a little less.

This explains why we get Mario Tennis (N64 - 1060k) instead of Mario Strikers (GC - 200k) , Mario Sluggers (GC - 260k) or even Mario Golf (N64 - 650k). This explains why there are rumors of Diddy Kong Racing (N64 - 890k) and that it was so hard to get Starfox (SNES - 800k). Other sequels we probably can forget are Metroid 3D (best selling 3D Metroid in Japan is Metroid: Other M -130k), F-Zero (SNES - 890K), Wave Race (N64 - 340k), Pilotwings (SNES  - 480k), Mario Paint (SNES - 710k), 1080º (N64 - 130k), Endless Ocean (Wii - 120k). This could have been a major component in Nintendo not fighting for Rare. Except DKC Rare did not sell well in japan, not even Banjo (N64 - 550k)

If this rule is true there is a bigger chance of Rhythm Heaven U (Wii - 770k) than Metroid 3D U. Metroid 2D could happen though (NES - 1040k)! Even games like Mario Galaxy (1020k & 980k) and Luigi's Mansion (Wii -460k) could have a hard time getting a sequel. This explains why Twilight Princess (Wii - 600k, GC - 40k) is the Zelda game that will not come to Wii U (remake or VC).

Strange exceptions: Xenoblade Chronicles (Wii - 160k), Fatal Frame (Wii - 100k), Fire Emblem (SNES - 700k)

Please fill in with your own examples. I will try to come back with more numbers and "proofs".

EDIT: This also means no sequels to Splatoon (~300k), Captain Toad (150k) or Hyrule Warriors (130k).

While your theory is believable your data is all over the place.

1. Why is 890k enough for you to buy diddy kong rumors, but 800k isn't enough for a star fox or F-Zero sequels? Also 800k is pretty good for Japan.

2. You cite a ton of games that got sequels. F-zero got 2 (not including GBA games) and it was confirmed Nintendo tried to get a 3rd party to make another for wiiu. Wave Race & pilot wing both got sequels, hell launch title sequels. 1080 got a sequel. Endless ocean got a freaking sequel on the same hardware no less. And they made 3 prime games even though none of them sold well in japan. And if DS sequels count than Luigi's mansion got one too.

3. It is important to remember japan sales have lower threshold for success (as well as they tend to be front loaded).

I would say they weigh japan heavily but they certainly make some games for the west too.