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If we're going strictly by the first 12 months, like I said before, this is actually not unreasonable for a Fusion platform of some type.

First 12 months actually means basically the first two holiday seasons (assuming a November-ish launch).

3DS in that context sold around 15 million its first 12 months, Wii U was around 5 million. Add those together and what number do you get? Bingo.

Keep in mind too that Nintendo would likely have to have some overage of inventory in their warehouses too, they can't just literally have the exact number of units they plan to ship and nothing left in their warehouses.