Is the XB1 at 11 million sold by end of 2014?

[Puppyroach]

ZhugeEX said:

Well, all we do in this. thread is guesswork since no one knows the exact numbers besides MS. My numbers, however, would fit very well with VGC and a reasonable drop-off for 360 YOY. So what are your objections?

Your methodology. 

Using VGC as a base is wrong as VGC make up their numbers, then guessing 360 shipments without explaining why is also a bit iffy. 

Based on the deep analysis I've done I can say with some confidence that the Xbox One sell in will have been somewhere between 11.9m and 12.6m at the end of 2014. That fits with your number however the methodology I've used looks at all known variables in order to create this highly accurate number. Unfortunately we can't pinpoint an exact sell in number, nor can we pinpoint an exact sell through number. The full methodology I used is on gaf in one of my old posts. It's a long read. 

But VGC is what we have to go by, so why not use that? And they make calculated approximations, just like NPD, MCV and the likes. The bigger firms are more than likely more accurate, which is why VGC constantly make adjustments based on announcments. We also know the ratio between 360 and X1 based on the first two shipments, and the drop-off in 360 sales leading up to the launch of X1. You may complain about my methodology, but atleast I have one which provides plausible numbers, contrary to a lot of other people in these forums.