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Assassin's Creed bundle still being in stock does suggest a significant over-shipment, and it's not just Amazon because retail workers on gaf have confirmed they still have the bundle in stock despite not getting any new shipments for it in months. In terms of consoles on shelves, it makes sense that X1 has 400k less than PS4, because as we know PS4 is comfortably outselling it, and thus needs more consoles available around the world.

Ratio is an interesting argument, but can't give you anything concrete. It is difficult to know how much X1 sales increased in countries like the UK around November and December.

If I had to guess, I would say slight overtracking, but we are probably always going to be guessing with X1