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MDMAlliance on 21 June 2015
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thismeintiel said:
MDMAlliance said:

So basically you understand the market better than anyone else, right?  Just because someone has an explanation of why something happened and it looks like it makes sense, doesn't really mean it's actually true.  If it really were as easy as you make it seem, no one would have trouble selling product.  Saying it wont happen again just tells everyone that you're arrogant.  It lets everyone know that you think your opinion is above everyone elses (because predictions are not fact).  

Also, you have no idea if the Wii was an "anamoly" or not.  There isn't a big enough sample size for anyone to say if the trend seen warrants that the Wii was the odd one out.  People just say it because there's no other data to look at.  Sure there's reason to think that it may trend downward further, but the fact that the Wii is there shows that there's reason to doubt too. 

I guess I understand the market better than most Nintendo fans, when it comes to the home console market.  Even after it was revealed that the Wii U would be following the same strategy as the Wii U (slightly more powerful then the power leader last gen, cheapest console, and gimmicky controls), I saw it failing where Nintendo fans saw success.  And when they predicted the PS4 and XBO would struggle because the Wii U was, I knew it wouldn't be the case.

I'm not claiming to be some awesome predictor, cause I'm not, but there are some things that are set in stone and/or common sense.  One of those being that the Wii was an anamoly.  What other console/gimmick is going to bring in casuals and grandmas like the Wii did?  There are touch games on their phones/tablets for them, now. Or they just stopped playing altogether.  They aren't paying $250-300 + $100, in droves to play a couple of games, anymore.

Another one is that PlayStation has the largest, most loyal fanbase WW.  Even with the HUGE mistakes of last gen, Sony finished a close 2nd.  No other brand would have survived a $500 ($600 for the desired model) launch price, with weaker multiplats for the first year or so.  It's really the only reason gamers tolerated RROD last gen.  With a $400 PS3 and equal multiplats from launch, they all would have jumped ship. Sony doesn't seem to be going back into the business of making mistakes anytime real soon.


This is a perfect example of confirmation bias.