Is this a fair prediction?

[Sqrl]

Slimebeast said:
Your total average is 60 million consoles per year. That's far too much. Currently the sales rate is pointing at 45-47 million for all the 3 consoles, and that's already a 50% increase from last gen (which had on average of total 31 mill consoles per year; 18 mill for PS2, 6.5 mill for Xbox and 6 mill for Gamecube per year at a comparable time).

Glad someone pointed this out....but I do think this number will go up a bit still due to the whole blue ocean strategy. In generations where the market expands it does so throughout the generation. The thing is blue ocean is the Nintendo strategy so its going to pick up a lot of that increase.

If I were to just rough guess it I would say that it will go like this on average for the next 3 years using 50M as a max each year:

Wii - 28M
PS3 - 13M
360 - 10M

With that pace, 3 years from today we have:

Wii - 108.54M
PS3 - 50.92M
360 - 48.35M

 

Very rough estimate but it doesn't sound unfeasible.  Check back on April 30th of 2011.

 

PS -

Rock_on_2008 said:
Guess no one is game enough to write down some projected numbers with some reasoning behind them.

You could have waited longer than 24 minutes.