It's not like Sony never sent things out to basically die. Vita, Move, 3D games, etc...
Also the "it's the way it happened last time so it's going to happen again" logic has been proven wrong many times, especially when it comes to video games.
As for these devices, they are not really at all similar to Blu-Ray/HD DVD. For example it's hard to believe that the major third parties are going to make their AAA VR only games exclusive to Morpheus (that's even assuming there are AAA VR only games when it's much more likely to be AAA games that are "better with VR goggles".
Considering third parties are used to making games that are multiplatform why would they suddenly start making exclusive VR games for a platform and cut off millions of potential sales? Unless Sony is willing to start some serious moneyhatting it's not likely that such a change would happen. If anything we're much more likely to see games that are compatible with all three formats.
The only chance Sony has of "winning" in the way that Blu-Ray won is if they're willing to go all in and bet big with AAA VR exclusive games by all their major studios. They never took that kind of risk with Move, 3D games or even Vita so it remains to be seen how much they're going to put on the line to try to make this a success. If they're willing to lose billions I could see them dominating but I wouldn't bet on it. We're more likely to see their existing games with added VR support and "on-rail" good looking games that won't be the groundbreaking games people are expecting.







