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Bofferbrauer said:
Aerys said:

Only 800k behind Wii U whereas it has been released 1 year and 2 months later, should outsell it early in 2016, before April for sure

Not so sure about that. 750k is a huge gap by now in the japanese home console market which will take quite some time to close. The beseline of the PS4 is at slightly over 10k, the one of the Wii U is at slightly over 6k, so while in percentage this constitutes a huge difference, in absolute sales with just 4k it ain't. The PS4 however gets bigger boosts from it's game releases than the Wii U and naturally also more often, so I'd say we could calculate with a mean value of ~8-10k per week above Wii U sales. At that speed, the PS4 would take at least until the 2016 holiday season.


Only in droughts period, but now, during a normal period, the baseline of PS4 is more around 20k and it can easily reach more than 60k with big games, so we have MGS V coming and a lot of big western games that will impact sales in Japan too, there are also the next Tales and Zestiria, Star Ocean 5, Dissidia FF, DQ Heroes 2 and a lot of other japanese games to be announced ( like the next Level 5 game). The gap will close even faster since Wii U has no big games this year, they can only make bundles and price cut

 

The gap was more than 1,5M when PS4 released in Japan, and now it's half of that in just one year, whereas Wii U had SSB and Mario Kart, so what do you think it will be in one year  without big games (as system seller) in 2015 ?



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m