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I'd say it should be Metroid; getting a Zelda film right, that doesn't harm the IP would be near impossible (and there's the rumoured TV show), and a Mario film would be similarly difficult to get right.

Metroid, on the other hand; would work well as a film, and is a franchise that isn't huge in popular perception, so a film would make a lot of sense as a way of increasing knowledge of the brand. It's also a sort of film that hollywood knows how to makes; Pandorum, Prometheus, Event Horizon all have that sense of exploration that makes Metroid what it is.

Plus, there's not enough sci fi films anymore.