With X1's surprise, albeit slender, victory in April's NPD, and another PS4 exclusive slipping into next year, it is looking more possible than ever that Xbox could be the 8th gen home console leader by the end of 2015 in the US.
Right now, the gap stands at 700k. In November and December last year, X1 cut the gap by 625k. This year, as well as no doubt having some very appealing bundles in November and December, MS have Halo 5 in October as well. So it seems to me that X1 is a clear favourite to win the last three months of the year as things stand.
In the meantime, PS4 has a Batman bundle, which should lead to a win in June NPD. They also have marketing deals for big titles coming later in the year, such as MGSV, Battlefront and possibly Black Ops III. And maybe they will announce a AAA game at E3 that is scheduled for later this year, although if this is the case it will most likely be a new IP, which is always tricky to launch in the holiday window. PS4 will almost certainly have a price drop as well, and given that it will be the consoles' first, will lead to a big boost in sales, even if it is only $50.
Right now, I still think PS4 will lead US by the end of the year. But I think X1 will win big in the last three months of the year, even against a PS4 price cut, and the gap will be small by the end of the year, around 200-300k.
What do you think?
