Do you still predict +20,000,000 PS4 and +10,000,000 million XBO this year?

[SWORDF1SH]

microspot said:

SWORDF1SH said:

Shipped numbers are basically sold numbers. After the initial shipment, all shipments will be supplying stores that will already have stock on shelves. 

what are u talking about?
sony is really great this gen with giving number. and thats the reason, why we have exact shipped and sold through number for the whole year

4.2 sold throuhg end of 2013 4.5m shipped
18.5 sold through end of 2014 10.9m shipped

that results in 14.3m sold through and 15.4m shipped for the calendar year 2014


but ur right. the sold through / shipped gap won't increase drasticly anymore. (it will increase some. at least, if the ps4 will sell more. if u sell more units on a weekly base, u need some more channel inventory so u don't run out of stock?
but more than 1.5 up to 2 million max (in the busy time) is not needed for that

still doesn't chance the fact, that reaching 20m sold through is 500k - 1m units harder than the same number shipped ;)
im not sure, if sony will countiue to give us sold through number, but if they do, ill expect the shipped number this year beining ~500k above the sold through number. 

 

p.s in 2015 sony hase one more market to supply with channel inventroy. CHINA! :D 
that could increase the sold through / sell in gap by 100k more 

Not sure if you agree with me or not. I agree with what you say.

People seem to think that when shipped figures come out for the year that they automatically have to take a certain percentage off to allow for products in the channels. By that logic if you keep taking, let's say, 1M off every year shipments then by year 5 there will be 5M Consoles in the channels. 

 

This is why I said that after initial shipment, shipped and sold through data should roughly be the same because it's the initial shipment that stocks the channels. 

 

Of course other factors might drastically change the gap between shipped and sold through like supply outstripping demand in one year so the following year will have more consoles shipped to fill channels again. In that situation shipped will be higher than sold through unless the console is supply restraint again for the year.

 

In sonys case, they never had big supply issues last year so this year shipments should be identical to sold through. China, like you say, might increase the shipments slightly over sold through but not 100k difference. China is a huge country but small console presence.