UPDATED:Do you think the Wii U will get a price cut this year?

[Dr.Henry_Killinger]

sc94597 said:

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

We do know how long the consoles have been avaliable, at what prices, and how they have sold over time. Even if these two consoles hadn't already dropped before, which they have

So we can make a reasonable (ball park) guess.

Only if you assume the demand curve is linear, which is a poor assumption, as real world markets usually don't have linear demand curves. A $50 price drop from $400 to $350 is not going to have the same effect as a $50 price drop from $350 to $300 or $300 to $250. The following graph illustrates what a real-world demand curve might look like. 

 

The guesstimate I proposed doesn't imply a linear demand curve, it approximates base demand as a function of sales over time (Linear) and assumes the success of the price drop (sales gain/demand incease) increases (exponential) as the overall price drops.

This is a guesstimate where the Wii U would underperform in the case that the gap is consistent even if they dropped in price. If Nintendo was concerned about selling more and using a price drop do so, this would only be considered in the case that we don't have better information.