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Soundwave on 01 April 2015
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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:


If it decreases another 15-20% next YoY, then my number projections are fairly spot on for 2016 ... you think Nintendo can deal with sales that low for another year into spring 2017? 

I personally don't see it. Nintendo seems to be more reactive to Japanese sales trends too, Iwata always seems to really watch weekly sales in Japan like a hawk. 

I'm not really sure where u are going with this, a 3DS successor is likely to release holiday 2016 regardless, ur making it seem like Nintendo is in dire need of new hardware and that a 2016 release is them saying, "oh shit!!!! We need something NOW!!!!", when its more than likely a successor was being planned for holiday 2016 for quite some time now.

Like u have said in the past, it was Spring 2014 when Nintendo said it would be about 2 years or so when they are ready to redefine gaming or something along those lines. That means they have been planning a 2016 launch of new hardware for quite some time now, not just because 3DS/Wii U are showing 15% decline.


I'm saying it more as a counterpoint to people here at VGC who really push the "Nintendo can just sleepwalk to 2017/2018 no worries here" ... errr, some people need to wake up and actually look at some of the data that's coming ... they can't sustain this in Japan for another 2 years. 

I actually wouldn't mind a spring 2017 launch for the next portable because they could likely get a very nice chipset the longer they wait, but looking at sales data I don't see how Nintendo could possibly wait that long unless they want to incur potential long term damage to their standing in the Japanese market (as in giving Sony way too much space to carve out their own momentum).