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But it is relevant for Uncharted. As the OP showed, launch week went up 500k between 2 and 3. Uncharted is series growing in popularity. Halo is on the decline (just look at the reviews and the user reception of Halo 4). So while Halo may be "install base immune", all that means is that it'll launch to the same numbers. Whereas Uncharted has the potential to increase. And with the PS4 being the runaway market leader and Uncharted easily being Playstation's biggest franchise right now, I wouldn't be surprised if UC4 snuck passed Halo 5 global FW vs Halo US 1st week. And I'm in the boat that says UC4 will outsell Halo 5 LTD as well. Destiny sold 2.1M FW on PS4 and that was a new IP. You don't think Sony will give a similar push to Uncharted? As a franchise with growing popularity and is established as a quality game? I think the install base disparity will definitely come into play here |
The simple counter to Halo's "install base immunity" would be to say that the Halo franchise is waning in popularity. Despite 3 titles being released over a 5 year period of X360 install base growth, no the FW sales stagnated and failed to grow. If we assume that that trend were to continue, it would be a linear decrease, every 3 years (to 2015). In essence, the X360 would have to grow at the rate it did from 07 to 10 and 10 to 12 from 12 to 15, just maintain the 2.4M FW Halo sales. i think it's safe to say that whatever console sales increases that would be necessary to secure those FW game sales has not happened (last gen is waning), but it is also safe to assume that the X1 install base is nowhere near what the X360 would have to be to secure 2.4M FW sales for Halo 5. If you oversimplify the math, it would take anout ~55-60M X1 users to maintain the trend. If you reapply those simple calculations, the X1 has sold 10% of the consoles necessary to hit 2.4M with Halo 5 in week 1 (It's on "pace" for 240,000 for week 1, using the formula.). Halo 5 will sell more than 250,000 copies FW in the US, but this shows that the signifigance of the historical sales data lends itself to smaller expected debut.
