I think his DS estimate is still on the low side, as there is still a lot of room for growth in the US market.
http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/analyst-wii-to-sell-85-million-units-in-us-in-08/?biz=1
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian has issued a new research note raising projections for the growth of the U.S. video game industry this year. "Based on healthy year-to-date industry sales (software +40% in 1Q) and increasing visibility into a strong product release schedule over the remainder of the year, we expect software sales growth of ~17% in 2008, an increase from our original estimate of ~13% growth. As part of our model update, we are also increasing unit sales projections for Nintendo hardware (Wii and DS) and Sony's PS3," he said.
"We note that solid hardware unit sales (2.5 million units alone in March), steady TIE ratios (attach rates), and brisk sell-through of new software releases support our revised growth estimate," he added. Sebastian now expects the Wii to sell through 8.5 million units in 2008 (up from his previous 6.5 million estimate), while he believes the PS3 will sell 4.7 million units (up from 4.5 million). He also raised his DS sales estimate from 5.9 million to 6.4 million and his PS2 estimate from 2.5 million to 3.0 million. His PSP and Xbox 360 estimates remain unchanged at 3.8 million and 4.8 million, respectively.
While 2007 saw explosive growth and 2008 appears on track for similarly huge growth, Sebastian foresees a slight slowdown in the years ahead. "At this point, we continue to expect low single digit software sales growth in 2009 and 2010 for traditional console, handheld and PC game sales," he said.
