Darwinianevolution said:
Soundwave said:
I don't think they will hit 80 million with the unified platform due to continued erosion of the portable market from smart devices, but even at 60-70 million they should be able to make a nice profit from it.
They were making a ton of money off the NES at sub-60 million before the Game Boy ever came around. Sega was profitable with the Genesis even when that capped off at only about 33-40 million.
The main advantage they will have with a unified platform is they don't have to have the console division dragging down their entire bottom line if it doesn't sell well.
Console games like a Splatoon 2 or Mario Kart 9 and 10 or Hyrule Warriors 2 will be able to enjoy the larger handheld userbase, so there's no worry for Nintendo about how the console variant is selling, it'll just become icing on the cake. If it sells well, great, if it doesn't, it's not a huge problem anymore, the games still have a large userbase to reach.
I'd say probably
60 million - Handhelds
13 million - Home Variant
73 million combined finish. Could be less honestly, I don't know. Depends on if kids really continue to be enraptured by smart devices, we are dealing with a new generation that won't even have grown up with a DS. But Nintendo should still be able to be profitable as long as they make the hardware profitable.
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Technically their hardware nombers could be higher because of the QoL system. Even if it's just a Wii-like machine, it could make a decent profit.
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I count that as something completely separate as it won't be a game you play per se most likely (doubt that sleep sensor has Mario Galaxy on it). But yeah that and the IP licensing (Mario CG movie from Sony, Zelda Netflix series) could be profit earners.
To me Nintendo looking to branch out into these areas is actually an admission that they don't anticipate video game hardware/software sales to be the same as in years past. To augment the "unified" approach, they needed new business pillars -- lo and behold QoL and a sudden openness to try their IP in movies/TV.
